Daily Kos

What's your guess for the August job numbers? [poll]

by tmo

Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:24:49 PM PDT

The August employment report comes out this Friday. According to this AP story on today's consumer confidence report, economists are expecting it to say we gained 160,000 jobs in August. Of course we all know what a track record "these economists" have (who are these guys anyway?) - they predicted 150,000 jobs for last month, but were shocked by a truly craptacular report of 32,000 jobs.
Me, I'd put the August number at 50,000. I don't think anything's changed since last month, but I'm in the Bay Area where the job situation is still pretty awful, so I'm tacking some on to make up for it. I'm guessing it's a little better elsewhere. But not much.

So, what's your guess on the Friday job numbers for August? Spit it out. And if you're inclined, I'd like to hear what the hiring situation is like in your community.

Poll

What;'s your guess on Friday's job numbers?

29%24 votes
14%12 votes
14%12 votes
13%11 votes
7%6 votes
3%3 votes
4%4 votes
2%2 votes
1%1 votes
7%6 votes

| 81 votes | Vote | Results

Tags: (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 11 comments

  •  Random guess (none / 0)

    80K. Though we might well see a net loss. I don't see anything as having changed since last month.

    Also, about 1/3 of July's jobs were created in the Seattle area alone. So also look for a lot of regional variation in the numbers.

    I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day
    Neither is California High Speed Rail

    by eugene on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:27:05 PM PDT

  •  The Hurricane in FL will have knocked down... (none / 0)

    the number a bit, but I really don't think it will matter too much either way because the news coverage is going to get sucked up by the new Hurricane regardless if the numbers are good or not.

    by ECH on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:28:29 PM PDT

  •  god i hope (none / 0)

    if the numbers are bad, that someone leaks them thursday,.

    by thirdparty on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:29:48 PM PDT

  •  Don't want to sound negative, but... (none / 0)

    I think they could even be negative. If you look at the trend on the last three months, that's a possible outcome.

    If Bush wins, I could see the country going into a real bad recession. Sometimes I wish Bush would win so I could look at the face of all these people on the right who are completely out of touch with reality to see their reaction. Not that it'd matter, they'll probably blame it on 9-11.

    by bruno on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:34:47 PM PDT

  •  101,000 or so to be revised down in October during (none / 0)

    a Friday afternoon news dump

    Don't be so afraid of dying that you forget to live.

    by LionelEHutz on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:35:31 PM PDT

  •  Business as usual (none / 0)

    The number released will be 200k for August, and July will be revised down to 10k.  August will then be revised down next month to 20k.  Don't know how that extra zero got in there.

    "There is no barrier of people's acceptance. The only barrier is the media. Remember what people cannot see or hear, they cannot think about."

    by dugjxn on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:38:25 PM PDT

  •  Does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion... (none / 0)

    ...that the "seasonal adjustment" increases upwards in direct correlation to the pressure of Karl Rove's hand on the BLS' balls?

    Watch the market on Thu.  There is well founded speculation that the numbers have leaked to big investors for at least the past several months (and probably have indefinitely).  The market tanked on Thu. last month IIRC.

    Rumsfeld, he needs to be hit on the head. --Baghdad Bob

    by Jimmy Jazz on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:39:42 PM PDT

  •  If it is good it will be buried by the news (none / 0)

    if it is bad it will get buried by the massive Hurricane hitting the East Coast and Bush's speech.

    However, if the number is really horrible or really good it will get press time.

    by ECH on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:41:00 PM PDT

  •  asdf (none / 1)

    Look for an astonishingly high number 200k +. (Not that that is a high number, but it would be for the current expectations and this administration).

    I don't know how they do it (I've been assured its not possible) but I am convinced that this administration somehow manipulates the numbers.  I think they made a calculated decision to lower last months results, and adjust down the previous two so they could add them in this months total, and carry momentum out of the convention.

    See!  Looky looky, lots of jobs! See, told you so, Jobs, Jobs,

    We know whats best for you!

    by brighton on Tue Aug 31, 2004 at 04:59:54 PM PDT

Permalink | 11 comments